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The quick read: British Columbia votes Saturday, October 24, and the latest forecast gives the B.C. Conservatives a commanding lead — Vote-scope projects 57 of 93 seats and a greater than 99 percent chance of a majority. But the Okanagan is where the real drama is: Kelowna Centre, decided by 40 votes in 2024, ranks as one of the five tightest races in the province. Advance voting ends tomorrow night.

Four days out, the province-wide picture looks settled — on paper.

Vote-scope's forecast, updated October 19 and built on 56 polls and 50,000 simulations, has the Conservatives at 43.4 percent to the NDP's 38.3 percent, with the Greens at 10.1 percent.

Translated to seats: 57 for Lorne Doerkson's Conservatives, 34 for David Eby's NDP, two for the Greens — and a better-than-99-percent chance the Conservatives clear the 47 seats needed for a majority.

Kelowna Centre: 40 votes and a rematch

Here's where Kelowna comes in. Kelowna Centre is the fifth-tightest race in all of B.C.: the Conservatives are projected at 48.8 percent with a 2.6-point gap and a 78 percent chance of holding it.

It is a straight rematch. Conservative Kristina Loewen faces the NDP's Loyal Wooldridge, and in 2024 Loewen won by 40 votes — 0.16 percent — the second-smallest margin anywhere in the province.

Seventy-eight percent is not one hundred percent. And after a week of recount talk in Kelowna's mayoral race, nobody here needs reminding that thin margins decide everything.

The rest of the Okanagan

Vernon-Lumby would flip: the Conservatives are projected at 47.7 percent with an 81 percent chance, a seat the NDP's Harwinder Sandhu took by just 476 votes in 2024.

Penticton-Summerland is rated a Conservative hold at 46.5 percent with a 99 percent chance — wider margin, calmer race.

Kelowna-Mission, Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream, West Kelowna-Peachland and Boundary-Similkameen are all rated solid Conservative holds, with projected gaps of seven points or more.

How the race got here

Eby called the snap election September 22, citing the trade war with the United States.

Two days earlier, Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay had resigned after four months of caucus defections — and on September 22, seven CentreBC MLAs rejoined Doerkson's Conservatives, with Elenore Sturko taking over what was left of CentreBC.

The model treats all of that as baked in. What could still move it: how CentreBC and OneBC's vote actually lands, and the first campaign polls that name the new parties properly.

When to vote

Advance voting runs October 16 through 21, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time. The deadline to request a vote-by-mail package has already passed.

Election Day is Saturday, October 24, with polls open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Pacific.

Kelowna just voted in a municipal election last Saturday — so voters who cast a ballot on October 17 will be at it again seven days later.

If a riding can be decided by 40 votes, nobody gets to sit this one out.

Photo credit: Photo by Edmond Dantès on Pexels