Listen to this story:

The quick read: The Angus Reid Institute's post-nomination poll — the first conducted after all candidates were confirmed — puts the B.C. Conservatives at 48 per cent among decided and leaning voters, up five points, with the NDP at 43 per cent, the Greens at seven, and other parties at two, according to News Beep's reporting of the data. Conservative supporters are far more certain of their vote: 65 per cent say they are very certain, versus 44 per cent of NDP supporters. The only live, televised leaders' debate happens Wednesday, October 14, from 6:15 to 8 p.m., with David Eby, Lorne Doerkson, and Emily Lowan facing off, moderated by Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, per a BC Broadcast Consortium media advisory.

The polls have a race.

The Angus Reid Institute's post-nomination poll — the first taken after the candidate lists were finalized — puts the B.C. Conservatives at 48 per cent among decided and leaning voters, five points up, with the NDP at 43 per cent and the Greens at seven, News Beep reports.

The gap is five points, and neither side can bank on it.

Here's what should worry the NDP war room more than the headline: 65 per cent of Conservative supporters say they are "very certain" of their vote, compared with 44 per cent of NDP supporters.

Certain voters show up.

The defining moment of this campaign hasn't happened yet.

On Wednesday, October 14, from 6:15 to 8 p.m., the only live, televised leaders' debate of the election brings David Eby, B.C. Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson, and Green leader Emily Lowan onto one stage, moderated by Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, according to the BC Broadcast Consortium's media advisory.

OneBC's Dallas Brodie and CentreBC's Elenore Sturko didn't make the cut — the consortium says all parties agreed on the participation criteria, though it hasn't published them.

With the economy and affordability topping voter concerns, according to the Business Examiner, expect taxes and the cost of living to dominate the night.

Eby will be defending nine years of NDP government; Doerkson will be proving a party that's been in turmoil all year is ready to govern; Lowan will be fighting for relevance at seven per cent.

Watch it, because in a five-point race with soft NDP support, ninety minutes of television could be the whole election.